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The Counterfactual Test

Pressure-test the story

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Ventures & Intelligence

A quick way to surface blind spots before momentum takes over.

  • If the opposite were true, what would we see first?
  • What would change if we did nothing for 90 days?
  • Which metric would get worse before it got better?
  • Who benefits from the current story staying true?
  • What are we treating as non-negotiable that is actually optional?

Rule

If you cannot answer these in one sitting, you are not ready to ship the decision.

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